Teams for Tri Nations Round 3: Springboks vs All Blacks

The Springboks will start as firm favourites in their round three Tri Nations encounter against the All Blacks in Durban on Saturday 1st August 2009. After the dominant performance they put in last weekend in Bloemfontein, the Springboks surpassed the All Blacks as officially the world's best rugby union team.

Nevertheless, they will be well advised to bring their A game on Saturday, as the All Blacks are sure to be far more competitive. Any complacency from the Springboks is likely to lead to their downfall. But though they've been guilty of this in the past, the magnitude of the occasion is likely to dispel any over-confidence.

Springbok Team

The only change to the Springbok starting lineup is at flyhalf, where Morne Steyn comes in for the injured Ruan Pienaar. There has been a lot of debate lately about the relative merits of these two players - essentially Pienaar is more of an attacking, running player (in a scrum-half kind of way, which is not surprising since that's been his preferred position over the years), whereas Steyn is a more traditional kicking flyhalf. There's no doubt the Boks missed the services of a reliable kicker in the first half last week, but the question is - what do they give up for that luxury? The Boks lost the only other time Steyn started - in the third test against the British Lions, but let's not necessarily lay that at Morne's door. He's been very successful for the Blue Bulls - let's see if he can carry that over to the Springboks.

It's also an historic occasion for John Smit who becomes the most capped test captain ever, and both Bryan Habana and Jean de Villiers will play in their 50th test.

15. Frans Steyn
14. JP Pietersen
13. Jaque Fourie
12. Jean de Villiers
11. Bryan Habana
10. Morné Steyn
9. Fourie du Preez
8. Pierre Spies
7. Juan Smith
6. Heinrich Brüssow
5. Victor Matfield
4. Bakkies Botha
3. John Smit (captain)
2. Bismarck du Plessis
1. Tendai "Beast" Mtawarira

Reserves: Chiliboy Ralepelle, Jannie du Plessis, Andries Bekker, Danie Rossouw, Ricky Januarie, Adi Jacobs, Wynand Olivier

All Black Team

For the All Blacks, Jimmy Cowan returns at scrumhalf after being overlooked in favour of Brendon Leonard last week, and the injured Neemia Tialata is replaced by Owen Franks at tighthead prop. There's been some speculation lately that Luke McAlister should be given a run at inside centre in place of Nonu, who has been solid but unspectacular. The feeling is that McAlister will provide more of a creative spark in the midfield to create space for the outside backs. I for one wouldn't be surprised to see him on earlier rather than later in the second half.

Perhaps surprisingly, Graham Henry has once again elected to start with Andrew Hore at hooker, despite his problems throwing into the lineout in the last two games. It's an area New Zealand desperately needs to work for them this week if they are to apply any pressure to the Springboks.

15. Mils Muliaina
14. Joe Rokocoko
13. Conrad Smith
12. Ma’a Nonu
11. Sitiveni Sivivatu
10. Stephen Donald
9. Jimmy Cowan
8. Rodney So’oialo
7. Richie McCaw (captain)
6. Jerome Kaino
5. Isaac Ross
4. Brad Thorn
3. Owen Franks
2. Andrew Hore
1. Tony Woodcock,

Reserves: Keven Mealamu, John Afoa, Jason Eaton, Kieran Read, Piri Weepu, Luke McAlister, Cory Jane

Can the Springboks make it two in a row against the old foe? Perhaps, but methinks it'll be a close match. Kick-off is at 4pm GMT (5pm South African time).

Tri Nations round 2: Springboks 28-19 All Blacks

The Springboks put in a strong performance in Bloemfontein yesterday to beat the All Blacks 28-19 in round 2 of the 2009 Tri Nations. Admittedly they were favourites to win, but victory against the All Blacks is never guaranteed until the final whistle.

As it was, the Springboks completely dominated the first half, having the lion's share of territory and possession, and could be said to have been quite unlucky to have only been up 14-3 at half time. This was thanks to flyhalf Ruan Pienaar having an off day with the boot, missing three kickable penalties, a conversion and an attempted drop-goal. Consolation for Pienaar was his try in the left hand corner, which resulted from a long period of sustained pressure on the All Black line.

As well as the Springboks played in the first half, the All Blacks were their own worst enemy: the lineout continued from where it started against the Wallabies, with an overthrow to the back resulting in a turnover on the first All Black lineout. For New Zealand the half was characterised by mistakes and a string of penalties and free kicks which robbed them of any momentum and forced them to defend almost continuously - credit to them that they at least did that well and only conceded one try in the half.

Whatever Graeme Henry said to his team at half-time certainly worked, because they came out after the break and played with a lot more intensity and commitment, especially at the breakdown. They were rewarded with a superb solo try by Conrad Smith in the 48th minute, which was aided by some weak defence by the Springboks. Throughout the half the All Blacks were the ones pushing forward, but as so often happens they were a little unlucky to concede a late breakout try by Jaque Fourie after some excellent midfield work by Pierre Spies and Juan Smith - which basically sealed the match.

Actually this was one of several interceptions by the Springboks, although the only one to result in points. And Brian Habana was not involved in any of them! Actually he didn't see much of the ball - his role in the match was mainly to chase high kicks from scrumhalf Fourie du Preez onto the All Black wings, which he did very well as he forced several mistakes from the catchers. The other tactic the Springboks employed to good effect was the rolling maul - all in all they played fairly typical Springbok "ten-man" rugby. There's no disputing they do it well and it's effective, but it would be nice to see a bit more from the backline on attack - all very exciting players.

The All Blacks will undoubtedly be more than a bit unhappy with their performance, even though they managed to pick it up in the second half. The lineout remains an area of concern for them, which they will have to address before next week. In fairness though, it was always going to be difficult for them, coming to play in South Africa at altitude with so little time to acclimatise. Stephen Donald and Mils Muliaina will be starting to develop a complex, as a similar thing happened in the final of the Super 14, where the Chiefs were solidly thrashed by the Bulls after having to travel to the highveld to play that one too! Fortunately they have a chance to redeem themselves in Durban next week - should be an interesting one to watch!

Teams for Tri Nations Round 2: Springboks vs All Blacks

As was to be expected, both South Africa and New Zealand have named strong lineups for their first meeting of the 2009 Tri Nations, to be played in Bloemfontein on Saturday 25th July 2009. The All Blacks are fresh off a fighting 22-16 win over the spirited Australians last week; the Springboks have had a three week layoff since their defeat to the British Lions in the 3rd test.

The Springboks have been installed as favourites going into this match against a "weak" All Blacks side - although we saw last week what a load of nonsense that is! Still, the Boks played well enough against a strong and motivated British Lions team to clinch the series, and that, together with home ground advantage should be enough to see them home. But make no mistake, it's going to be an uncompromising and hard-fought encounter, as matches between these traditional rivals always are.

All Black Team

The side shows only two changes from last week - Brendon Leonard in at scrumhalf and Joe Rokocoko on the right wing. By the coach's own admission, neither Jimmy Cowan nor Cory Jane played badly last week, so I guess this is proof that Graham Henry is still persisting with his squad rotation policy - forgive me, but I thought that'd been demonstrated to be a failure in the 2007 World Cup!

15. Mils Muliaina
14. Joe Rokocoko
13. Conrad Smith
12. Ma’a Nonu
11. Sitiveni Sivivatu
10. Stephen Donald
9. Brendon Leonard
8. Rodney So’oialo
7. Richie McCaw (captain)
6. Jerome Kaino
5. Isaac Ross
4. Brad Thorn
3. Neemia Tialata
2. Andrew Hore
1. Tony Woodcock

Reserves:Keven Mealamu, Owen Franks, Jason Eaton, Kieran Reid, Piri Weepu, Luke McAlister, Cory Jane

Springbok Team

Coach Peter de Villiers has reverted to what looks like his first-choice side after his own (failed?) squad rotation experiment in the last test against the British Lions. It'll be the first time in a couple of years that we see Jean de Villiers and Jaque Fourie together in the centre - which was a very successful combination ahead of the 2007 World Cup. The coach has also preferred Ruan Pienaar to Morne Steyn at flyhalf - perhaps an indication that he wants to play a more open game. It does however mean the Springboks are a bit light in the kicking department - Pienaar is good, but lacks consistency.

15. Frans Steyn
14. JP Pietersen
13. Jaque Fourie
12. Jean de Villiers
11. Bryan Habana
10. Ruan Pienaar
9. Fourie du Preez
8. Pierre Spies
7. Juan Smith
6. Heinrich Brüssow
5. Victor Matfield
4. Bakkies Botha
3. John Smit (captain)
2. Bismarck du Plessis
1. Tendai "Beast" Mtawarira

Replacements: Chiliboy Ralepelle, Jannie du Plessis, Danie Rossouw, Ryan Kankowski, Ricky Januarie, Morné Steyn, Wynand Olivier

Kick-off is at 4pm GMT (5pm South African time). Enjoy the match!

Tri Nations Results

Here is a summary of Tri Nations results between 1996 and 2008. As they say in financial circles, "past performance is no guarantee of future results" - but it sure helps!

Year	Winner	Played	Matches won	Bonus points
1996	All Blacks	4	4	1
1997	All Blacks	4	4	2
1998	Springboks	4	4	1
1999	All Blacks	4	3	0
2000	Wallabies	4	3	2
2001	Wallabies	4	2	1
2002	All Blacks	4	3	3
2003	All Blacks	4	4	2
2004	Springboks	4	2	3
2005	All Blacks	4	3	3
2006	All Blacks	6	5	3
2007	All Blacks	4	3	1
2008	All Blacks	6	4	3

In summary, New Zealand have won the Tri Nations nine times, South Africa twice, and Australia twice. Statistically, the All Blacks have won 39 of their 56 games (70%), followed by the Wallabies with 23 wins (41%) and a draw, and the Springboks with 21 wins (38%) and a draw.

From this it's obvious that the tournament has been dominated by one team: the All Blacks. Notwithstanding their consistently poor performance in World Cups, these results - against what are widely regarded as the world's other two best teams - clearly demonstrate their position at the top of the tree in world rugby.

What it takes to win

To win the tournament teams generally need to win at least one more than half their games (in other words four wins in a six-match format; three in a four-match format). Draws and bonus points (for scoring four or more tries in a game, or losing by seven points or less) also make a difference though, and it's possible to win the tournament having only won 50% of matches - the Springboks and Wallabies have both managed this feat. No team has yet managed to win the tournament with less than a 50% win ratio, although it's probably mathematically possible.

Home ground advantage

Looking back at all Tri Nations results between 1996 and 2008, we see that almost 70% of matches are won by the home team. No doubt this has something to do with travel arrangements, but also that teams, knowing they have to win at least half their matches, target these home fixtures as must-win games.

Results for Tri Nations 2009?

One wonders how the 2009 tournament will pan out. The Wallabies are looking strong under coach Robbie Deans; the Springboks will be confident after a series win over the British Lions, but as usual are mired in controversy; the All Blacks are in a rebuilding phase and struggled against a touring French team recently. Any one of the teams is capable of winning it, but the smart money has got to be on New Zealand to make it five in a row.