Tri Nations Results

Here is a summary of Tri Nations results between 1996 and 2008. As they say in financial circles, "past performance is no guarantee of future results" - but it sure helps!

Year	Winner	Played	Matches won	Bonus points
1996	All Blacks	4	4	1
1997	All Blacks	4	4	2
1998	Springboks	4	4	1
1999	All Blacks	4	3	0
2000	Wallabies	4	3	2
2001	Wallabies	4	2	1
2002	All Blacks	4	3	3
2003	All Blacks	4	4	2
2004	Springboks	4	2	3
2005	All Blacks	4	3	3
2006	All Blacks	6	5	3
2007	All Blacks	4	3	1
2008	All Blacks	6	4	3

In summary, New Zealand have won the Tri Nations nine times, South Africa twice, and Australia twice. Statistically, the All Blacks have won 39 of their 56 games (70%), followed by the Wallabies with 23 wins (41%) and a draw, and the Springboks with 21 wins (38%) and a draw.

From this it's obvious that the tournament has been dominated by one team: the All Blacks. Notwithstanding their consistently poor performance in World Cups, these results - against what are widely regarded as the world's other two best teams - clearly demonstrate their position at the top of the tree in world rugby.

What it takes to win

To win the tournament teams generally need to win at least one more than half their games (in other words four wins in a six-match format; three in a four-match format). Draws and bonus points (for scoring four or more tries in a game, or losing by seven points or less) also make a difference though, and it's possible to win the tournament having only won 50% of matches - the Springboks and Wallabies have both managed this feat. No team has yet managed to win the tournament with less than a 50% win ratio, although it's probably mathematically possible.

Home ground advantage

Looking back at all Tri Nations results between 1996 and 2008, we see that almost 70% of matches are won by the home team. No doubt this has something to do with travel arrangements, but also that teams, knowing they have to win at least half their matches, target these home fixtures as must-win games.

Results for Tri Nations 2009?

One wonders how the 2009 tournament will pan out. The Wallabies are looking strong under coach Robbie Deans; the Springboks will be confident after a series win over the British Lions, but as usual are mired in controversy; the All Blacks are in a rebuilding phase and struggled against a touring French team recently. Any one of the teams is capable of winning it, but the smart money has got to be on New Zealand to make it five in a row.