Teams for Tri Nations Round 2: Springboks vs All Blacks

As was to be expected, both South Africa and New Zealand have named strong lineups for their first meeting of the 2009 Tri Nations, to be played in Bloemfontein on Saturday 25th July 2009. The All Blacks are fresh off a fighting 22-16 win over the spirited Australians last week; the Springboks have had a three week layoff since their defeat to the British Lions in the 3rd test.

The Springboks have been installed as favourites going into this match against a "weak" All Blacks side - although we saw last week what a load of nonsense that is! Still, the Boks played well enough against a strong and motivated British Lions team to clinch the series, and that, together with home ground advantage should be enough to see them home. But make no mistake, it's going to be an uncompromising and hard-fought encounter, as matches between these traditional rivals always are.

All Black Team

The side shows only two changes from last week - Brendon Leonard in at scrumhalf and Joe Rokocoko on the right wing. By the coach's own admission, neither Jimmy Cowan nor Cory Jane played badly last week, so I guess this is proof that Graham Henry is still persisting with his squad rotation policy - forgive me, but I thought that'd been demonstrated to be a failure in the 2007 World Cup!

15. Mils Muliaina
14. Joe Rokocoko
13. Conrad Smith
12. Ma’a Nonu
11. Sitiveni Sivivatu
10. Stephen Donald
9. Brendon Leonard
8. Rodney So’oialo
7. Richie McCaw (captain)
6. Jerome Kaino
5. Isaac Ross
4. Brad Thorn
3. Neemia Tialata
2. Andrew Hore
1. Tony Woodcock

Reserves:Keven Mealamu, Owen Franks, Jason Eaton, Kieran Reid, Piri Weepu, Luke McAlister, Cory Jane

Springbok Team

Coach Peter de Villiers has reverted to what looks like his first-choice side after his own (failed?) squad rotation experiment in the last test against the British Lions. It'll be the first time in a couple of years that we see Jean de Villiers and Jaque Fourie together in the centre - which was a very successful combination ahead of the 2007 World Cup. The coach has also preferred Ruan Pienaar to Morne Steyn at flyhalf - perhaps an indication that he wants to play a more open game. It does however mean the Springboks are a bit light in the kicking department - Pienaar is good, but lacks consistency.

15. Frans Steyn
14. JP Pietersen
13. Jaque Fourie
12. Jean de Villiers
11. Bryan Habana
10. Ruan Pienaar
9. Fourie du Preez
8. Pierre Spies
7. Juan Smith
6. Heinrich Brüssow
5. Victor Matfield
4. Bakkies Botha
3. John Smit (captain)
2. Bismarck du Plessis
1. Tendai "Beast" Mtawarira

Replacements: Chiliboy Ralepelle, Jannie du Plessis, Danie Rossouw, Ryan Kankowski, Ricky Januarie, Morné Steyn, Wynand Olivier

Kick-off is at 4pm GMT (5pm South African time). Enjoy the match!

Tri Nations Results

Here is a summary of Tri Nations results between 1996 and 2008. As they say in financial circles, "past performance is no guarantee of future results" - but it sure helps!

Year	Winner	Played	Matches won	Bonus points
1996	All Blacks	4	4	1
1997	All Blacks	4	4	2
1998	Springboks	4	4	1
1999	All Blacks	4	3	0
2000	Wallabies	4	3	2
2001	Wallabies	4	2	1
2002	All Blacks	4	3	3
2003	All Blacks	4	4	2
2004	Springboks	4	2	3
2005	All Blacks	4	3	3
2006	All Blacks	6	5	3
2007	All Blacks	4	3	1
2008	All Blacks	6	4	3

In summary, New Zealand have won the Tri Nations nine times, South Africa twice, and Australia twice. Statistically, the All Blacks have won 39 of their 56 games (70%), followed by the Wallabies with 23 wins (41%) and a draw, and the Springboks with 21 wins (38%) and a draw.

From this it's obvious that the tournament has been dominated by one team: the All Blacks. Notwithstanding their consistently poor performance in World Cups, these results - against what are widely regarded as the world's other two best teams - clearly demonstrate their position at the top of the tree in world rugby.

What it takes to win

To win the tournament teams generally need to win at least one more than half their games (in other words four wins in a six-match format; three in a four-match format). Draws and bonus points (for scoring four or more tries in a game, or losing by seven points or less) also make a difference though, and it's possible to win the tournament having only won 50% of matches - the Springboks and Wallabies have both managed this feat. No team has yet managed to win the tournament with less than a 50% win ratio, although it's probably mathematically possible.

Home ground advantage

Looking back at all Tri Nations results between 1996 and 2008, we see that almost 70% of matches are won by the home team. No doubt this has something to do with travel arrangements, but also that teams, knowing they have to win at least half their matches, target these home fixtures as must-win games.

Results for Tri Nations 2009?

One wonders how the 2009 tournament will pan out. The Wallabies are looking strong under coach Robbie Deans; the Springboks will be confident after a series win over the British Lions, but as usual are mired in controversy; the All Blacks are in a rebuilding phase and struggled against a touring French team recently. Any one of the teams is capable of winning it, but the smart money has got to be on New Zealand to make it five in a row.